BNP Paribas Forecasts Major Revenue Shift for Salesforce and Microsoft
Financial analysts at BNP Paribas issued a significant sector preview on Saturday, the report outlines a fundamental transformation in how software companies will generate money moving forward, this strategic pivot moves the industry away from traditional user growth toward artificial intelligence revenue models.
Volatility in 2025 Market Sets Stage for New Strategy
The software industry is currently recovering from a period of intense instability, investors witnessed a sharp decline in stock values during the "August 2025 SaaS Smash" when anticipated returns from artificial intelligence failed to materialize quickly. This previous volatility created a skeptical environment, market participants are now adopting a cautious attitude toward technology investments, they require concrete proof of profitability before committing capital.
Companies spent much of 2025 testing new technologies, the focus has now shifted from experimentation to actual production. Analysts note that the previous method of growing revenue by simply adding more user seats is no longer viable, this change forces major corporations to prove they can monetize automated agents effectively.
Report Details Transition to Agentic Revenue Models
Stefan Slowinski of BNP Paribas led the research identifying the end of the "seat-based" era, the report highlights that future growth depends on "agentic" monetization where AI tools perform autonomous tasks. Salesforce is identified as the company best positioned to lead this transition, the firm is pivoting aggressively toward its Agentforce platform and Data Cloud services.
The research reaffirms Microsoft as a dominant player in the sector, analysts maintained an Outperform rating with a price target of $632, the company continues to lead enterprise surveys due to the strength of its Azure cloud platform. In contrast, expectations for ServiceNow were adjusted downward, the price target was cut to $120 following a stock split in late 2025, this reflects broader concerns about potential slowdowns in information technology spending.
Corporate Restructuring Defines Future Growth
Major organizational changes are accompanying this strategic shift, Salesforce has scheduled a 4-for-1 stock split for April 18, 2026, this move coincides with their push into AI-driven growth segments. Intuit is also adjusting its approach, the company is marketing assisted offerings early to secure customers before tax season peaks.
Investment Strategies Likely to Change Until May Reporting
Investors are advised to exercise patience until the first quarter results are released in May 2026, analysts suggest that current guidance from management teams will remain conservative rather than accelerated. The market is expected to remain polarized, large cloud providers will likely maintain dominance while mid-sized software firms may face deteriorating demand.
Market experts believe the true financial payoff for these new AI models is still over a year away, officials urge stakeholders to wait for the May reporting cycle to establish a clear baseline for the new business model.
